Right now
The most recent data we hold from NOAA arrived 5 minutes ago, and this point is not in it. We record detections, not passes: an absence is not proof that nothing is there.
Nothing else has been detected within 20 km in the last 24 hours.
This alert expired on 27 May 2026 at 18:00 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
It is the 15th strongest of the 81 detections recorded within 20 km of this point since 16 March 2026. Another comparable one was recorded here earlier the same day. 2 more were recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued May 27 at 1:00PM EDT until May 27 at 2:00PM EDT by NWS Wakefield VA
An estimated 129,657 people live within 50 km of this point.
Nearby, since 16 March 2026
- August 10, 2026 · score 43 · 6.9 km
- September 3, 2026 · score 37 · 12.0 km
- August 8, 2026 · score 48 · 15.8 km
How we know
One source: NOAA. Not yet confirmed by a second, independent source.
Our own score for this event is 43 out of 100, at 79 % confidence.
The score is ours, computed from intensity, exposed population and local history — not the source’s.
Computed under scoring rules v1. Rows carrying other versions were judged by different rules and are not directly comparable.
Event Data
| Type | Severe Weather |
| Severity | Medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 43 / 100 |
| Our confidence | 79% |
| Coordinates | 38.2404, -77.3470 |
| Nearest City | Fredericksburg (12 km) |
| Population Exposed | 129.7K within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-05-27T17:00:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/merged_Severe Thunderstorm Warning_noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.4469e1f79900925cbf35ab21f571622d |
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Severe Thunderstorm Warning |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Observed |
| AreaDesc | Caroline, VA; Essex, VA; Richmond, VA; Westmoreland, VA; Culpeper, VA; Fauquier, VA; Orange, VA; Spotsylvania, VA; Stafford, VA; City of Fredericksburg, VA |
| Headline | Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued May 27 at 1:00PM EDT until May 27 at 2:00PM EDT by NWS Wakefield VA |
| Expires | 2026-05-27T14:00:00-04:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Wakefield VA |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| MergedCount | 2 |
| MergedIds | ["noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.4469e1f79900925cbf35ab21f571622d732902fb.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.3a10bfc69466d0e03c68d9ce3f314adeaf881587.001.1"] |
Safety Information
Always follow official guidance from your local emergency management agency. This platform provides scientific monitoring data and is not a substitute for official warnings. If you are in immediate danger, contact your local emergency number.
Series begins 8 March 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
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